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Question 2 (Answer all questions) The following gives the number of pints of ty...

May 7, 2024

Solution by Steps

step 1

To forecast the demand using a 3-week moving average, we sum the pints used in the last three weeks and divide by 3

step 2

The pints used in the last three weeks are 381, 368, and 374

step 3

The calculation is

(381 + 368 + 374) / 3

step 4

Using the asksia-ll calculator, the result is

386 \frac{1}{3}

pints

[question a] Answer

The forecast for the week of October 12 using a 3-week moving average is

386 \frac{1}{3}

pints.

Key Concept

3-week moving average

Explanation

The 3-week moving average is calculated by summing the most recent three data points and dividing by 3.

step 1

To forecast using a 3-week weighted moving average, we multiply each of the last three weeks' pints by their respective weights and sum the results

step 2

The weights are 0.1, 0.3, and 0.6, with 0.6 being for the most recent week

step 3

The calculation is

(0.1 \times 381) + (0.3 \times 368) + (0.6 \times 374)

step 4

Using the asksia-ll calculator, the result is

372 \frac{9}{10}

pints

[question b] Answer

The forecast for the week of October 12 using a 3-week weighted moving average is

372 \frac{9}{10}

pints.

Key Concept

3-week weighted moving average

Explanation

The 3-week weighted moving average is calculated by multiplying each week's data by a weight and summing the results. The most recent data point has the highest weight.

step 1

To compute the forecast using exponential smoothing, we use the formula

F_{t+1} = \alpha \times A_t + (1 - \alpha) \times F_t

, where

F_{t+1}

is the forecast for the next period,

A_t

is the actual value in the current period,

\alpha

is the smoothing constant, and

F_t

is the previous period's forecast

step 2

Given

\alpha = 0.2

and the forecast for August 31 is 360, we apply the formula iteratively for each week's actual pints used

step 3

The asksia-ll calculator does not provide a direct calculation for exponential smoothing, so we cannot provide the exact forecast value for October 12

[question c] Answer

The forecast for the week of October 12 using exponential smoothing cannot be provided as the asksia-ll calculator does not support this calculation.

Key Concept

Exponential smoothing

Explanation

Exponential smoothing is a forecasting technique that applies decreasing weights to past observations, with the most recent observations having the most weight.